U.S. estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail absent transitory …, and global factors affecting real interest rates. This paper applies the Laubach-Williams methodology to the United States … GDP growth and natural rates of interest have occurred over the past 25 years in all four economies. These country …

Modeling interest rates over samples that include the Great Recession requires taking stock of the effective lower … bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We propose a flexible time– series approach which includes a “shadow rate”—a notional ….{{p}}The approach allows us to estimate the behavior of trend real rates as well as expected future interest rates in recent years …

We study the term structure of default-free interest rates in a sticky-price model with an occasionally binding … effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on interest rates and recursive preferences. The ELB constraint induces state …-dependency in the dynamics of term premiums by affecting macroeconomic uncertainty and interest-rate sensitivity to economic …