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This paper characterizes optimal commitment policy in the New Keynesian model using a novel recursive formulation of the central bank's infinite horizon optimization problem. In our recursive formulation motivated by Kydland and Prescott (1980), promised inflation and output gap---as opposed to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016641
We analyze credible forward guidance policies in a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) constraint on nominal interest rates by solving a series of optimal sustainable policy problems indexed by the duration of reputational loss. Lower-for-longer policies --- while effective in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181173
We simulate the FRB/US model and a number of statistical models to quantify some of the risks stemming from the effective lower bound (ELB) on the federal funds rate and to assess the efficacy of adjustments to the federal funds rate target, balance sheet policies, and forward guidance to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016767
less concerned with government spending stabilization than society eliminates expectations-driven liquidity traps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181947
inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint … of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct … identification of these biases. Both inflation and deflationary biases are present (and sizable) in inflation expectations of these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181222
We examine the implications of less powerful forward guidance for optimal policy using a sticky-price model with an effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates as well as a discounted Euler equation and Phillips curve. When the private-sector agents discount future economic conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932433
effects of the effective lower bound (ELB). However, these strategies work in part by managing the public's expectations … ability to manage expectations reduces but does not eliminate the advantages of L4L policies. The best policies provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012017503
When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board’s principal New Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016122
Bernanke's strategies for integrating forward guidance into conventional instrument rules anticipate that effective lower bound (ELB) episodes may become part a regular occurrence and that monetary policy should recognize this likelihood (Bernanke (2017a); Bernanke (2017b)). Bernanke's first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016089
In expectations-driven liquidity traps, a higher inflation target is associated with lower inflation and consumption …. As a result, introducing the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps to an otherwise standard model lowers the … interest rates, we find that even a very small probability of falling into an expectations-driven liquidity trap lowers the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181161