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Indian Economic Outlook 2008-09 and 2009-10

Kumar, Rajiv - 2009

This paper provides an outlook for the Indian economy in the light of the extraordinary global financial crisis, that started in the US, but which has now transformed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. The Indian economy was slowing down even before the onset of global...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807640

The State of the Indian Economy 2009-10

Joseph, Mathew - 2009

Despite signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, the GDP growth rate for the Indian economy is likely to be between 5.8 to 6.1 per cent in 2009-10, below the 6.7 per cent recorded in fiscal 2008-09. While there has been an improvement in Indian industry, particularly the manufacturing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807647

Overborrowing and systemic externalities in the business cycle

Bianchi, Javier - 2009

Credit constraints that link a private agent’s debt to market-determined prices embody a credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and constrained socially optimal equilibria, inducing private agents to overborrow. The externality arises because agents fail to internalize the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292300

Order, displacements and recurring financial crises

Hoffmann, Andreas; Urbansky, Björn - 2012

The paper describes boom-and-bust cycles within Hayek's framework of order and aims to provide an understanding of recurring crises in recent financial history. We argue that a boom-and-bust cycle is initiated by a displacement that lowers the degree of (ex-post) plan coherence (or order) in an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010309229

The effect of financial structure on crises: universal banking in interwar Europe

Adalet, Müge - 2009

This paper examines the link between banking structure and financial fragility across Europe during the 1920s and 1930s using a new database. Monthly and annual data are analyzed to show that countries with universal banking were more likely to experience crises. Furthermore, those countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010273665

The increased importance of asset price misalignments for business cycle dynamics

Bask, Mikael; Madeira, João - 2011

We outline a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with trend extrapo-lation in asset pricing that we fit to quarterly U.S. macroeconomic time series with Baye-sian techniques. To be more precise, we modify the DSGE model in Smets and Wouters (2007) by incorporating asset traders...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321374

International Debt Deleveraging

Fornaro, Luca - 2013

I provide a framework for understanding debt deleveraging in a group of _nancially integrated countries. During an episode of international deleveraging world consumption demand is depressed and the world interest rate is low, reecting a high propensity to save. If exchange rates are allowed to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370099

Saving on a Rainy Day, Borrowing for a Rainy Day

Alan, Sule; Crossley, Thomas; Low, Hamish - 2012

The aim of this paper is to understand what a recession means for individual consumers, and to model in a life-cycle framework how individuals respond to recessions. Our focus is on the sharp increase in savings rates that have been observed in the current and recent recessions. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500212

Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives

Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman R. - 2003

forecasting model for another variable, and hence our use of terminology such as ?out-of-sample Granger causality? (see e …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263216

Simulation-based valuation of project finance: does model complexity really matter?

Weber, Florian; Schmid, Thomas; Pietz, Matthäus; … - 2010

forecasting techniques, e.g. correlation forecasts based on historical values and on a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model … varied. We find that the applied volatility forecasting models have a strong influence on the expected net present value … distribution and on the probability of default. In contrast, correlation forecasting models play a minor role. Time resolution and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305715