Mistrust is a serious problem for organizations. So much has been written about functional biases and misaligned incentives that one wonders how anyone can trust a forecast provider. Well, now we have some studies that shed new light on the factors that can build or impede trust in forecasting....

In his Hot New Research Column, Paul Goodwin discusses three recent studies on the effectiveness of traditional tools for new product forecasting: consumer intentions surveys, S curves, and conjoint analysis of the basis of customer preferences. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2008

Paul Goodwin’s latest Hot New Research Column is very appropriate for the summer season. He reports on a recent paper by Haiyan Song and Gang Li, who reviewed research into tourism forecasting published in 121 articles since 2000. Paul also refers to another recently published paper by Sedat...

Many of us make judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts. But do these improve accuracy? Paul Goodwin explains when you should avoid the temptation to adjust and shows how the accuracy of your interventions can be improved. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

New to Foresight with this issue is the column Hot New Research, written by Paul Goodwin. In each issue, Paul will summarize several new articles that address issues of importance to the forecasting practitioner. The focus for this initial column is on forecasting performance in organizations,...

Paul discusses several key advantages to using CPFR, as Seifert explains the system. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2005

Goodwin and Fildes comment on the issue 14 Foresight article by Orrell and McSharry, A Systems Approach to Forecasting, part of a special feature entitled Rethinking the Ways We Forecast Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009

Goodwin covers the pros and cons of complexity in advanced forecasting methods and warns that recommendations based on them should be supported by strong evidence of reliability. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Holt-Winters (HW) is the label we frequently give to a set of procedures that form the core of the exponential-smoothing family of forecasting methods. The basic structures were provided by C.C. Holt in 1957 and his student Peter Winters in 1960. Those of you unfamiliar with exponential...

Goodwin comments on the drawbacks and problems involved in using off-the-peg error metrics and cites studies by several recent researchers on the accuracy and effectiveness of these metrics. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2009