We propose a new methodology for ranking in probability the commonly proposed drivers of inflation in the New Keynesian … to labor share, output gap or unemployment rate as the driver of U.S. inflation. …

autoregressive model for the inflation rate. By construction, our approach avoids a number of problems related to the GMM estimation … of the NKPC. We estimate the hybrid NKPC with quarterly U.S. data (1955:1-2010:3), and both expected future inflation and … lagged inflation are found important in determining the inflation rate, with the former clearly dominating. Moreover …

models to improve on simple univariate models in forecasting U.S. inflation. While this indeed is the case when the benchmark ….S. inflation dynamics than the conventional causal autoregression and it is, therefore, the appropriate univariate benchmark model. …

model. An empirical application to U.S. inflation demonstrates the importance of allowing for noncausality in improving …

application, we consider modeling the U.S. inflation which, according to our results, exhibits purely forward-looking dynamics. …

This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally … adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested …

consider U.S. inflation dynamics. A purely noncausal AR model gets the strongest support, but there is also substantial … evidence in favor of other noncausal AR models allowing for dependence on past inflation. Thus, although U.S. inflation … specifications seem to yield inflation forecasts which are superior to those from alternative models especially at longer forecast …

.S. inflation dynamics which, according to our results, is purely forward-looking. …