Cet article examine l'evolution a court terme des cours du cacao sur le marche de New York. Nous essayons d'etablir des previsions hors echantillon en utilisant une modelisation non lineaire de type reseaux de neurones. Nous examinons aussi l'impact des volumes de transactions, de la volatilite...

This paper proposes a new kind of asymmetric GARCh where the conditional variance obeys two different regimes with a smooth transition function. In one formulation variance reacts differently to negative and positive shocks while a second formulation, small and big shocks have separate effects.

This paper develops a dynamic model wherin production generates pollution that is viewed as a public bad by consumers. There are two types of consumers: those who are altruist a la Barro-Becker and leave bequests to their children and those who are pure life-cyclers. Both types of consumers...