"This paper investigates the role of mismatch between job seekers and job openings for the forecasting performance of a labor market matching function. In theory, higher mismatch lowers matching efficiency which increases the risk that the vacancies cannot be filled within the usual period of...

"The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA's regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

"This paper studies the patterns of unemployment dynamics in Germany. To provide a deeper insight into the margins of unemployment adjustment, we employ a structural VAR model and identify the effects of a technology shock as well as two policy shocks. We find that the worker reallocation...

"Between 1979 and 2009, the German labour market moved along a Beveridge curve with changing slope that usually shifted outwards but once inwards. We employ an unobserved components model to simultaneously disentangle permanent and transitory components of matching efficiency and separation rate...

"Using German data this study applies an unobserved-components approach to disentangle the unemployment rate into a (stochastic) trend and a cyclical part and to estimate the influence of these components on labor participation. The persistent trend component of unemployment, which triggers...

"Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-of-sample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast...

"This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between German output and employment growth, in particular their decoupling in recent years. We estimate a correlated unobserved components model that allows for both persistent and cyclical time variation in the employment impact of GDP as...

Mit diesem Forschungsbericht liegt die erste modellbasierte Wirkungsabschätzung einer Wirtschaft 4.0 auf Arbeitsmarkt und Wirtschaft in Deutschland vor. D.h. es werden nicht nur Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung in der Industrie sondern in der Gesamtwirtschaft betrachtet. In einer 5-stufigen...

Mit diesem Forschungsbericht liegt die erste modellbasierte Wirkungsabschätzung von Industrie 4.0 auf Arbeitsmarkt und Wirtschaft in Deutschland vor. In einer 5-stufigen Szenario-Analyse werden zunächst die Auswirkungen von erhöhten Investitionen in Ausrüstungen (1) und Bau für ein...

Dieser Beitrag untersucht für Deutschland die Wachstums- und Beschäftigungseffekte einer Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs bei Personenkraftwagen (Pkw). Unter Zuhilfenahme der Szenarientechnik wurde eine Reihe von Annahmen getroffen und diese in das Analyseinstrument QINFORGE integriert....