We perform a large simulation study to examine the extent to which various generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models capture extreme events in stock market returns. We estimate Hill's tail indexes for individual S&P 500 stock market returns ranging from 1995-2014...

In this paper, we focus on thorough yield curve modelling. We build on extended classical Nelson-Siegel model, which we further develop to accommodate unobserved regional common factors. We centre our discussion on Central European currencies' yield curves: CZK, HUF, PLN and SKK. We propose a...

Using a global sample, this paper investigates the determinants of wealth inequality capturing various economic, financial, political, institutional, and geographical indicators. Using instrumental variable Bayesian model averaging, it reveals that only a handful of indicators robustly matter...

We examine the European Central Bank's ad-hoc communication and explore how it informs future monetary policy decisions. Using the rich dataset of the intermeeting verbal communication among the members of the European Central Bank's Governing Council between 2008 and 2014, we construct a...

Expatriate workers' remittances represent an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. No consensus, however, has yet emerged regarding the effect of remittances on economic growth. In a quantitative survey of 538 estimates reported in 95 studies, we find that...

We evaluate the effect of exchange rate misalignments on the balance of trade and the role that global value chain participation plays in this effect for 11 new European Union member states. Using heterogeneous panel cointegration methods, we first estimate the real equilibrium exchange rate and...

We estimate the causal effect of natural catastrophes on financial development. We focus on largest catastrophes in developing economies in 1960-2016, employ synthetic control method to compute the counterfactual and use the credit to GDP ratio as the measure of financial development. Our...

We provide a new explanation for why central banks have become transparent over the last three decades. We apply recently developed social interaction panel regression models for the observational data, which allow the identification of peer effects. The identification is based on variations in...

A key parameter in structural models is the Frisch elasticity of labor supply at the extensive margin, but empirical estimates vary greatly. We provide a quantitative synthesis of the literature. To this end, we collect 723 estimates from 36 studies along with 22 explanatory variables reflecting...

We examine whether artificial intelligence (AI) can decipher European Central Bank's communication. Employing 1769 inter-meeting verbal communication events of the European Central Bank's Governing Council members, we construct an AI-based indicator evaluating whether communication is leaning...