We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the hot hand selection bias Miller and Sanjurjo (2015). We explain the connection by way of the principle of restricted choice, an intuitive inferential rule from the card game bridge,...

The NBA Three-Point Contest has been considered an ideal setting to study the hot hand, as it showcases the elite professional shooters that hot hand beliefs are typically directed towards, but in an environment that eliminates many of the confounds present in game action. We collect 29 years of...