Focusing on policy-making under uncertainty, we analyze the Bank of Japanfs monetary policy in the early 1990s when the bubble economy collapsed. Conducting stochastic simulations with a large-scale macroeconomic model of the Japanese economy, we find that the BOJfs monetary policy at that time...

This paper analyzes the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model for the Japanese economy and monetary policy. The time-varying parameters are estimated via the Markov chain Monte Carlo method and the posterior estimates of parameters reveal the time-varying structure of the...

This paper proposes the EGARCH model with jumps and heavy- tailed errors, and studies the empirical performance of different models including the stochastic volatility models with leverage, jumps and heavy-tailed errors for daily stock returns. In the framework of a Bayesian inference, the...

To investigate the banking sector integration across euro area countries in terms of loan interest rate stickiness, we estimate structural loan rate curves for 12 euro area countries using time-varying regressions with stochastic volatility. Our results show that the loan rates are sticky to a...

In this paper, we explore the effects of the Bank of Japan's ( BOJ's) policy commitment under zero interest rates on the economy, by considering the transmission channel of altering private-sector expectations. To that end, we carry out a structural vector autoregression analysis on...

This paper attempts to explore monetary policy transmission under zero interest rates by explicitly incorporating the zero lower bound (ZLB) of nominal interest rates into the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TVP- VAR-ZLB). Nominal...

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the estimation methodology for the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility, in both methodology and empirical applications. The TVP-VAR model, combined with stochastic volatility, enables...

This paper documents empirically and analyzes theoretically the responses of disaggregated prices to aggregate technology and monetary policy shocks. Based on the price data of US personal consumption expenditure, we find that disaggregated price responses have features across shocks and across...

A new state space approach is proposed to model the time- dependence in an extreme value process. The generalized extreme value distribution is extended to incorporate the time-dependence using a state space representation where the state variables either follow an autoregressive (AR) process or...