China has been growing at a spectacular rate in recent years, enabling per capita incomes to almost quadruple in only the last decade and a half. This paper identifies the sources of economic growth in China from 1952 to 1994. While capital accumulation played an important role in China's...

This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and real economic activity. A closed-form formula for the term structure of interest rates is derived. The paper then documents the use of bond market data for predicting GDP growth in the G-7 industrial countries. The results...

This paper demonstrates that the stream of uncertain income from human capital has systematic effects on the demand for risky physical capital assets. If labor supply is inelastic and real wages are known with certainty, then a labor income tax will reduce holdings of the risky physical asset....