This paper analyzes the interrelationship between distortions in a country's relative price structure and rate of inflation. The model developed in the paper is applied to the recent period of high inflation in Argentina. A monetary model is constructed in which demand for real balances is...

In this paper the authors expand their earlier model of non-oil commodity price determination (Staff Papers, Vol. 31 (March 1984), pp. 93-140). The earlier study focused on the demand-side factors underlying the fluctuation of aggregate commodity prices in the short run. The present study...

The paper reviews the relative merits of using final equations in autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forms for forecasting, compared with reduced forms. It also attempts to apply the method of ARIMA models to a short-run simulation of commodity prices. Although both can be derived...

This paper analyzes the underlying causes of movements in non-oil primary commodity prices. The paper focuses on the large commodity price decline in 1981-82, but investigates this recent experience in light of the major postwar developments in primary commodity markets. An econometric model...