As part of a proposed two-stage early warning system, we estimate "safety zones" for fundamentals under which currency crashes are unlikely to occur. We depart from traditional regression-based early warning systems and instead estimate the set of fundamentals for which currency crises never...

As part of a proposed two-stage early warning system, we estimate "safety zones" for fundamentals under which currency crashes are unlikely to occur. We depart from traditional regression-based early warning systems and instead estimate the set of fundamentals for which currency crises never...

This paper examines unemployment hysteresis in the Belgian labor market. It estimates models of wage determination using aggregate and firm-level panel data. The conclusions are: (i) the long-term unemployed do not exert a negative impact on wages; and (ii) the incumbent workers, the...