From late 1980 through 1984, assets denominated in U.S. dollars exhibited average annual returns 12-18 percent higher than those on similar assets denominated in other major currencies. To be consistent with the existence of efficient financial markets, this large and unprecedented margin...

This paper tests alternative assumptions concerning the time-series behavior of foreign exchange rates. Data for about 20,000 individual trades on foreign exchange options for dollar exchange rates against six major currencies carried out from February 1983 to June 1985 are analyzed. The tests...

Conditions under which renewed international lending will benefit both the developed and the developing countries are identified. We evaluate how the presence of terms of trade adjustment and distorted credit markets affect the conditions for the existence of beneficial lending. We demonstrate...

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among...

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...

This article explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to December 2000. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among...

Several proposals for a wholesale privatization of public enterprises in Eastern Europe are discussed. These proposals include the distribution of "vouchers" to private citizens, as well as the use of mutual funds, privatization companies, and other forms of financial intermediaries. The paper...

The cost of interest payment guarantees is difficult to evaluate because guarantees are a contingent obligation that become effective only if a certain condition is met (that is, the debtor fails to make a certain payment). In this paper a technique to value interest payment guarantees on...

The problem of allocation of investment is an important issue for a debtor country facing a ceiling on the amount of foreign debt it can accumulate. The optimal solution is for the debtor country to create a more open economy by favoring investment in the export sector over investment in the...