This paper examines how debt maturity affects the debt limit, defined as the maximum amount of debt a government can afford without defaulting. We develop a model where investors are risk neutral, the primary balance is stochastic but exogenous, and default occurs solely due to the government's...

This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...

Korea is facing mounting economic challenges. Productivity growth has been on a trend decline amid demographic headwinds, while the societal demand for inclusive growth has been on a steep rise. Furthermore, the government-led unbalanced growth model-which served Korea well in the past-has...

This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly...

Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-termmovement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of therelationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced andemerging market economies. It also finds that...

Recent events have shown that sovereigns, just like banks, can be subject to runs, highlighting the importance of the investor base for their liabilities. This paper proposes a methodology for compiling internationally comparable estimates of investor holdings of sovereign debt. Based on this...

This paper examines how Japan's long-term interest rates and Japanese banks' interest rate risk exposures may evolve under Abenomics. Results from a panel regression analysis for major advanced economies shows that long-term government bond yields in Japan are determined to a large extent by...

Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called 'benchmark effect.' This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the...

Portfolio rebalancing is a key transmission channel of quantitative easing in Japan. We construct a realistic rebalancing scenario, which suggests that the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of...

Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by...