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of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy … good policy track record, contribute to magnifying this effect, thereby improving fiscal credibility. Conversely, empirical … analysis suggests that markets reward credibility with more favorable sovereign financing conditions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013295113
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses triggered a historically large wave of capital reallocation between markets and asset classes. Using high-frequency country-level data, this paper examines if and how the number of COVID cases, the stringency of the lockdown, and the fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234704
Holding foreign assets reduces the volatility of a country's income by allowing countries to share risk. Yet, financial integration is limited in Asia. This paper estimates how much Australia and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region would gain from greater financial integration. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777956
This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher public debt lowers the probability of being placed in a higher rating category; ii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864106
This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about futuregovernment bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and theUnited Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondentsconsider the expected evolution of the fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977869
funding costs and raised their holdings of domestic government debt. The model is quantified using Portuguese data and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929926
This paper investigates the impact of infectious diseases on the evolution of sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for a panel of 77 advanced and developing countries. Using annual data over the 2004-2020 period, we find that infectious-disease outbreaks have no discernible effect on CDS...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250064
We use a new, comprehensive data set on the sovereign debt investor base to document three novel empirical facts: (i) sovereign debt is repatriated - that is, shifted from external private to domestic investors - prior to sovereign defaults; (ii) not all crises are equal: evidence for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013288911
We study a model of equilibrium sovereign default in which the government issues cocos (contingent convertible bonds …) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments when the government faces liquidity shocks in the form of an increase of the … risk more attractive for the government. In contrast, cocos that stipulate debt forgiveness when the government faces the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289445
This paper aims to provide guidance to issuers of sovereign ESG bonds, with a focus on Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). An overview of the ESG financing options available to sovereign issuers is followed by an analysis of the operational requirements and costs that the issuance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350469