Limiting climate change requires a 80 percent reduction in fossil fuel extraction until 2050. What are the macroeconomic consequences for fossil fuel producing countries? We identify 35 episodes of persistent, exogenous declines in extraction based on a new data-set for 13 minerals (oil, gas,...

We investigate how changes in industries’ funding costs affect total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Panel regressions with 31 U.S. and Canadian industries between 1991 and 2007, using industries’ dependence on external funding as an identification mechanism, show that higher funding costs...

Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i) both the cyclical and non-cyclical parts had surges across...

Potential output-in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term-is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial 'booms and busts' are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach...

Amid total factor productivity (TFP) shocks job-to-job flows amplify the volatility ofunemployment, but the aggregate implications of job-to-job flows amid financial shocks are lessunderstood. To develop such understanding we model a general equilibrium labor-searchframework that incorporates...

This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle...

We revisit the conventional view that output fluctuates around a stable trend by analyzing professional long-term forecasts for 38 advanced and emerging market economies. If transitory deviations around a trend dominate output fluctuations, then forecasters should not change their long-term...

Lithuania's current credit cycle highlights the strong link between housing prices and credit. We explore this relationship in more detail by analyzing the main features of credit, housing price, and output cycles in Baltic and Nordic countries during1995-2017. We find a high degree of...