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Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and 'learned' anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A 'Taylor rule' is predicated upon two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889157
This paper applies a state-space approach to estimate the implicit inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank … (SARB) since the adoption of the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework. The paper's findings are two. First, although the … official inflation target range is 3.6 percent, in practice, the SARB seems to have aimed for the upper segment of the band (41 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098627
proportionally to inflation. We show that conditions under which these rules generate aggregate instability by inducing liquidity … that respond to expected future inflation are more prone to induce endogenous cyclical and chaotic dynamics the more open …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102282
Standard New Keynesian (NK) models feature an optimal inflation target well below two percent, limited welfare losses …-run Phillips curve between inflation and unemployment and a trade-off between price distortions and output hysteresis that change … the welfare-maximizing inflation level. For a plausible set of parameters, the optimal inflation target is in excess of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306762
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature …, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation … coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051913
Although central banks have recently taken unconventional policy actions to try to shore up macroeconomic and financial stability, little theory is available to assess the consequences of such measures. This paper offers a theoretical model with which such policies can be analyzed. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111404
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdrawal events, we use event study analysis and cross-country regressions to assess...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250077
Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996065
Would countercyclical fiscal policy during recessions improve or worsen the gender employment gap? We give an answer to this question by exploring the state-dependent impact of fiscal spending shocks on employment by gender in the G-7 countries. Using the local projection method, we find that,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892913
A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorption-reducing effect, as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098584