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Another Piece of the Puzzle : Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade

Ghazaryan, Narek; Goumilevski, Alexei; Mongardini, Joannes - 2022

This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306710

Improving the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade During the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Swift Data on Letters of Credit

Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2021

-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252036

Big Data on Vessel Traffic : Nowcasting Trade Flows in Real Time

Arslanalp, Serkan - 2020

Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843510

Fragmentation in Global Trade : Accounting for Commodities

Bolhuis, Marijn; Chen, Jiaqian; Kett, Benjamin - 2023

We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358436

Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Bayoumi, Tamim A. - 2018

All common real effective exchange rate indexes assume trade is only in final goods, despite the growing presence of global supply chains. Extending effective exchange rate indexes to include such intermediate goods can imply radically different effective exchange rate weights, depending on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012906887

Trade Flows, Multilateral Resistance, and Firm Heterogeneity

Behar, Alberto - 2013

We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selection into trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of exporting firms takes a gravity form, such that the extensive margin is also affected by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013085999

The Slowdown in Global Trade : A Symptom of a Weak Recovery

Aslam, Aqib - 2018

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928627

Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Assumption

Vamvakidis, Athanasios - 2021

The real effective exchange rate is an aggregation of several bilateral real exchange rates with respect to other countries. The aggregation is usually done under the assumption of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) between products from different countries. We investigate the validity of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212031

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important … to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts … a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780429

Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions : A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons

Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Werner, … - 2022

revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300855