Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century puts forth a logically consistent explanation for changes in income and wealth inequality patterns. However, while rich in data, the book provides no formal empirical testing for its theoretical causal chain. In this paper, I build a set of...

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Specifically,we...

This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter...

This paper provides a model on how altruism, quot;attachmentquot; to the home country, and portfolio diversification may act as potential motives behind workers` remittances. It shows that the level of workers` remittances depends on how great are their degrees of altruism and...

This paper investigates house price dynamics at high frequency using city-level observations during the period 1994-2022 in Lithuania. We employ multiple time series-based econometric procedures to examine whether real house prices and house price-to-rent ratios exhibit explosive behavior....

Achieving universal health coverage, including financial risk protection and access to quality essential health-care services, is one of the main Sustainable Development Goals. In low-income countries, innovative and affordable health financing systems are key to realize these goals. This paper...

In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a...

This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the...

European power markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes, with a record-breaking surge in energy prices.This paper investigates the impact of green power resources on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices at a granular level, using monthly observations for a panel of...