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Public Debt Dynamics : The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks

Chérif, Réda - 2012

We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal … austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically … times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098577

Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations

Acosta Ormaechea, Santiago Leonardo Enrique - 2021

, is exposed to exchange rate fluctuations that could affect the value of public debt to GDP ratios over time. This paper …-due to intra-year exchange rate fluctuations-that affects public debt accumulation. Importantly, the inclusion of this often …-ignored stock-flow adjustment term is critical to accurately project public debt levels and any related indicator that could in turn …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250098

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities : A New Dataset

Bova, Elva - 2016

We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990-2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fiscal distress. The average fiscal cost of a contingent liability realization is 6...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996068

Optimal Fiscal Adjustment Under Uncertainty

Rozenov, Rossen - 2016

The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables with known probability distributions, it is only assumed that they belong to some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982445

The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies : Evidence from Latin America

Carriere-Swallow, Yan - 2018

We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913884

Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries : Less Costly than Previously Thought

Fouejieu, Armand - 2018

This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Using OLS panel fixed effects on a sample of six countries from 1990-2016, results indicate that GCC fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years which would make the on-going fiscal consolidation less...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913891

How Public Investment Could Help Strengthen Iran's Growth Potential : Issues and Options

Emamgholi, Amir S. Sadeghi - 2018

Public investment is key to growth in developing oil-exporting countries and oil revenue is an important source of finance for public investment. Assessing the growth impact of public investment in Iran under various investment scaling-up (gradual, aggressive, and conservative) and oil price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913896

A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation in Latin America and the Caribbean

David, Antonio C. - 2018

This paper presents a new database of fiscal consolidations for 14 Latin American and Caribbean economies during 1989-2016. We focus on discretionary changes in taxes and government spending primarily motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and long-term fiscal health and not by a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918471

Thou Shalt Not Breach : The Impact on Sovereign Spreads of Noncomplying with the EU Fiscal Rules

Kalan, Federico - 2018

There is evidence that fiscal rules, in particular well-designed rules, are associated with lower sovereign spreads. However, the impact of noncompliance with fiscal rules on spreads has not been examined in the literature. This paper estimates the effect of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012918553

Do Fiscal Rules Cause Better Fiscal Balances? A New Instrumental Variable Strategy

Caselli, Francesca - 2019

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on fiscal balances in a panel of 142 countries over the period 1985-2015. Our instrumental variable strategy exploits the geographical diffusion of fiscal rules across countries. The intuition is that reforms in neighboring countries may...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889142