This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity; and (ii) as a useful input in analyzing...

A defining feature of transition economies is the expansion of the private sector. Motivated by the observation that new enterprises in transition economies seem to have a strong preference for recruiting young people, this paper studies intergenerational redistribution following from market...

China's transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the 'maturing' of China's economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards...

The paper examines the effects of aid and its volatility on consumption, investment, and the structure of production in the context of an intertemporal two-sector general equilibrium model. A permanent flow of aid finances mainly consumption, a result consistent with the historical failure of...

Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999-2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to...

The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of...

The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables with known probability distributions, it is only assumed that they belong to some...

The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe...

We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new...

Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the 'nowcasting' challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this...