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Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Caselli, Francesca; Stöhlker, Daniel; Wingender, Philippe - 2021

This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of …-in-Differences Method. Our results indicate that countries with a budget balance rule improve their fiscal balance on average by around 3 … have had large deficits in the absence of the fiscal rule exhibit positive treatment effects, thus reducing their budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250087

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Carton, Benjamin; Fouejieu, Armand - 2021

Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fiscal measures deployed to weather the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250092

Fiscal Crises

Gerling, Kerstin - 2017

A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956473

Optimal Debt Policy Under Asymmetric Risk

Escolano, Julio - 2016

In the paper we show that, most of the time, smooth reduction in the debt ratio is optimal for tax-smoothing purposes when fiscal risks are asymmetric, with large debt-augmenting shocks more likely than commensurate debt reducing shocks. Asymmetric risks are a feature of 200 years of data for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977785

Defining the Government's Debt and Deficit

Irwin, Timothy C. - 2016

Although the budget deficit and the public debt feature prominently in political debate and economic research, there is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999756

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates : Does Politics Matter?

Tavares, José - 2016

We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977352

Predicting Fiscal Crises

Cerovic, Svetlana - 2018

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912485

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress : Evidence from the Extreme Bound Analysis

Bruns, Martin - 2016

Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries' vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue by using the Extreme Bound...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996082

The Fiscal Stance in Japan : A Model-Based Analysis

Fournier, Jean-Marc; Hisanaga, Takuma; Nguyen, Anh D.M - 2022

This paper assesses Japan’s fiscal stance in the past and the future with a stochastic structural model called the Buffer-Stock Model of the Government. Our retrospective analysis suggests that the fiscal stance in the 1990s and the early 2000s was overall looser than the model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014077412

Debt Maturity : Does it Matter for Fiscal Space?

Kim, Jun-il - 2017

This paper examines how debt maturity affects the debt limit, defined as the maximum amount of debt a government can afford without defaulting. We develop a model where investors are risk neutral, the primary balance is stochastic but exogenous, and default occurs solely due to the government's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950439