This paper presents the Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN) tool. SyRIN allows a comprehensive assessment of systemic risk via quantification of the impact of risk amplification mechanisms, due to interconnectedness structures across banks and other financial intermediaries-insurance,...

Portfolio credit risk measurement is greatly affected by data constraints, especially when focusing on loans given to unlisted firms. Standard methodologies adopt convenient, but not necessarily properly specified parametric distributions or simply ignore the effects of macroeconomic shocks on...

This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity; and (ii) as a useful input in analyzing...

Macroprudential stress testing (MaPST) is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisispolicy-frameworks of financial-sectors around the world. MaPSTs can offer quantitative,forward-looking assessments of the resilience of financial systems as a whole, to particularlyadverse shocks. Therefore,...

A push-pull-brake model of capital flows is used to study the effects of fiscal policy changes on private capital flows to emerging Europe during 2000-07. In the model, countercyclical fiscal policy has two opposing effects on capital inflows: (i) a conventional absorption-reducing effect, as a...

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...

An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper investigates this implication empirically with U.S. Commercial Banks data and finds...

This paper employs a meta-regression analysis of 473 estimates from 15 studies to take stock of the empirical literature on Chinese aid effectiveness. After accommodating publication selection bias, we find that, on average, Beijing’s foreign assistance has had a positive impact on economic...

It takes many years for more efficient electronic payments to be widely used, and the fees thatmerchants (consumers) pay for using those services are increasing (decreasing) over time. Weaddress these puzzles by studying payments system evolution with a dynamic model in a twosidedmarket setting....

We study negative interest rate policy (NIRP) exploiting ECB's NIRP introduction and administrativedata from Italy, severely hit by the Eurozone crisis. NIRP has expansionary effects on credit supply---and hence the real economy---through a portfolio rebalancing channel. NIRP affects banks...