This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real …-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the … results show that errors in forecasting non-core inflation (commodity prices etc.) are found to be the largest contributors to …

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup … (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and … obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …

Inflation has been rising during the pandemic against supply chain disruptions and a multi-year boom in global owner …-occupied house prices. We present some stylized facts pointing to house prices as a leading indicator of headline inflation in the U … inflation in two housing components (rent and owner-occupied housing cost) of the headline inflation and draw tentative …

factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies …, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with …Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the …

This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on … GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic …) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. CPI inflation, however, misrepresents core inflation in some periods …

by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate …

In a SVAR model of the US, the response of the relative price of durables to a monetary contraction is either flat or … sticky as nondurables, leading to a flat relative price response to a monetary shock. Conversely, house prices are estimated …