This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than...

Non-deliverable forward (NDF) markets in many Asian emerging market currencies are large, rapidly growing, and often exceed onshore markets in transaction volume. NDFs tend to price significant depreciation during market stress episodes including COVID-19. Spillovers from NDFs to onshore markets...

Financial 'euroization'-or 'dollarization' outside of Central and Eastern Europe-is typically analyzed as a singular phenomenon that can be traced to a common set of factors. This paper argues that two types of euroization need to be distinguished, which have different causes, economic...

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market...

We present a model of a quot;softquot; exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate's current level, thus allowing the rate to move...

This paper studies how uncertainty about fundamentals contributed to currency crises from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We find evidence - based on a monthly dataset of Consensus forecasts for six Asian countries in the period January 1995-May 2001 - confirming the theoretical...

Using panel data for 15 economies from 2001-12, I identify determinants of central bank foreign exchange intervention in emerging markets (“EMs”) with flexible to moderately managed exchange rates. Similar to other studies, I find that central banks tend to “lean against the wind,”...

This paper is a first analysis of daily transactions in the foreign exchange market of Barbados, a small open economy that has had an unchanged peg to the U.S. dollar for over 30 years. As a result of the credibility of the peg, we expect that capital flows will respond to differentials between...

This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China's influence on regional...

Dollarization of liabilities (DL) has emerged as a key factor in explaining the vulnerability of emerging markets to financial and currency crises. "Usual suspects" of causing DL comprise "fatalistic" determinants such as a long history of unsound macroeconomic policies and development and...