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Fragmentation in Global Trade : Accounting for Commodities

Bolhuis, Marijn; Chen, Jiaqian; Kett, Benjamin - 2023

We construct a new database which covers production and trade in 136 primary commodities and 24 manufacturing and service sectors for 145 countries. Using this new more granular data, we estimate spillover effects from plausible trade fragmentation scenarios in a new multi-country, multi-sector,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358436

How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?

Arora, Vivek B. - 2006

This paper empirically examines the extent to which a country's economic growth is influenced by its trading partner economies. Panel estimation results based on four decades of data for over 100 countries show that trading partners' growth and relative income levels have a strong effect on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783228

Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Blagrave, Patrick - 2014

We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key economies, its demand for commodities, and its policies. Also, the Chinese economy has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060544

Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks : Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Gruss, Bertrand - 2019

External conditions have been found to influence the tendency of emerging market and developing economies to experience episodes of growth accelerations and reversals. In this paper we study the role of domestic policies and other structural attributes in amplifying or mitigating the effect that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866906

China : International Trade and WTO Accession

Rumbaugh, Thomas - 2006

China's increasing integration with the global economy has contributed to sustained growth in international trade. Its exports have become more diversified, and greater penetration of industrial country markets has been accompanied by a surge in China's imports from all regions--especially Asia,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012783222

International Trade Spillovers from Domestic COVID-19 Lockdowns

Aiyar, Shekhar S.; Malacrino, Davide; Mohommad, Adil; … - 2022

While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014081240

Trade and the COVID-19 Pandemic : Lessons from French Firms

Brussevich, Mariya; Papageorgiou, Chris; Wibaux, Pauline - 2022

This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms’ heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014083506

Global Trade and the Dollar

Gopinath, Gita - 2018

.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U ….S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6-0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume … of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928628

Quality and the Great Trade Collapse

Chen, Natalie - 2016

We explore whether the global financial crisis has had heterogeneous effects on traded goods differentiated by quality. Combining a dataset of Argentinean firm-level destination-specific wine exports with quality ratings, we show that higher quality exports grew faster before the crisis, but...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012996075

Global Value Chains and External Adjustment : Do Exchange Rates Still Matter?

Adler, Gustavo - 2020

The paper explores how international integration through global value chains shapes the working of exchange rates to induce external adjustment both in the short and medium run. The analysis indicates that greater integration into international value chains reduces the exchange rate elasticity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012843296