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The Puzzle of Brazil's High Interest Rates

Segura-Ubiergo, Alex - 2012

This paper highlights that real interest rates in Brazil have declined substantially over time, but are still well … Brazil sustain significantly lower real interest rates than in the past. Going forward, the paper shows that Brazil can … savings. Still, econometric results suggest that, controlling for everything else in the model, real interest rates in Brazil …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108621

Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan

Han, Fei - 2019

Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889159

Official Demand for U.S. Debt : Implications for U.S. Real Interest Rates

Kaminska, Iryna - 2014

By constructing and estimating a structural arbitrage-free model of demand pressures on US real rates, we find that recent purchases of US government debt securities by the Fed and foreign officials have significantly affected the level and the dynamics of US real rates. In particular, by 2008,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013053954

Collateral Damage : Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

Druck, Pablo - 2015

We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles - which are highly persistent - mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013015605

Stress Testing Corporate Balance Sheets in Emerging Economies

Chow, Julian T.S. - 2016

In recent years, firms in emerging market countries have increased borrowing, particularly in foreign currency, owing to easy access to global capital markets, prolonged low interest rates and good investment opportunities. This paper discusses the trends in emerging market corporate debt and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002159

Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Credit Booms

Magud, Nicolas - 2012

The prospects of expansionary monetary policies in the advanced countries for the foreseeable future have renewed the debate over policy options to cope with large capital inflows that are, at least partly, driven by low interest rates in the financial centers. Historically, capital flow...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110098

Global Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Markets

Ebeke, Christian - 2015

Foreign holdings of emerging markets (EMs) government bonds have increased substantially over the last decade. While foreign participation in local-currency sovereign bond markets provides an additional source of financing and reduces sovereign yields, it raises concerns about increased...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019036

Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence

Blanchard, Olivier - 2016

The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002152

International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies : Drivers of Issuance and Spreads

Presbitero, Andrea - 2016

What determines the ability of low-income developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) that issued sovereign bonds at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998812

Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate — The Case of Brazil

Perrelli, Roberto - 2014

we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013051598