While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper therefore investigates whether rising conflict and political instability globally...

We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty....

How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the...

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Our results suggest that while...

We investigate the complex interactions between credit constraints, political instability, and capital accumulation using a novel approach based on Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) theoretical framework. Drawing on a unique firm-level data set from Middle-East and North Africa (MENA), empirical...

Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab...

This paper explores the relationship between the degree of division or fractionalization of a country's population (along ethnoliguistic and religious dimensions) and both political instability and government consumption, using a neoclassical growth model. The principal idea is that greater...

Over the past two decades, the growth rate of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) from developing and transition economies has increased significantly. Given the role of physical capital accumulation in determining the economic growth rate, it is important to assess how domestic investment...