We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20...

We examine the effects of aid on growth-- in cross-sectional and panel data--after correcting for the bias that aid typically goes to poorer countries, or to countries after poor performance. Even after this correction, we find little robust evidence of a positive (or negative) relationship...

The paper provides an empirical investigation of labor market pooling. The analysis concentrates on Italian industrial districts and shows that there is scattered evidence of a widespread wage premium. In particular, there is no evidence of district differentials for the returns to seniority...

This paper compares two alternative measures of technology differences across industrial countries during 1970-92: one measures differences in labor productivity (the Ricardian measure), and the other differences in total factor productivity (the Hicksian measure). The distinction between the...

We examine one of the most important and intriguing puzzles in economics: why it is so hard to find a robust effect of aid on the long-term growth of poor countries, even those with good policies. We look for a possible offset to the beneficial effects of aid, using a methodology that exploits...

This paper tests empirically the theoretical prediction that the country premium paid by emerging economies on sovereign debt increases with the amount of debt up to a certain critical level, above which the supply of foreign funds becomes fixed. The results confirm this theoretical prediction....

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

This paper finds that the estimates of Armington elasticities (the elasticity of substitution between groups of products identified by country of origin) obtained from multilateral trade data can differ from those obtained from bilateral trade data. In particular, the former tends to be higher...

We explore the relationship between banking sector performance and the quality of regulation and supervision as measured by compliance with the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision (BCP). Using BCP assessment results for 65 countries and 1998-2002 panel data for other...

This paper analyzes the determinants of bond flows, now the dominant source of capital inflows, into the United States, as a means of establishing conditions affecting the financing of the U.S. current account deficit. To test the hypothesis that capital flows have become more responsive to...