This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE FEDERAL FUNDS AND THE EURODOLLAR MARKETS -- III. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY -- IV. DATA -- V. PRELIMINARY DATA ANALYSIS -- VI. ESTIMATION AND RESULTS -- A. Step 1: Daily NY Federal Funds vs. London Eurodollars -- B. Step 2: Daily NY Federal Funds vs. NY...

This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be...

When constructing hedged interest rate arbitrage portfolios for basket currencies, two issues arise: first, how are the unknown future basket weights optimally forecasted from past exchange rate data? And, second, how is risk—in terms of the conditional variance of expected profits from the...

Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. By considering the implied vector error-correction model, we show that little is to be gained from estimating such regressions for horizons greater...

This paper investigates the behavior of Korean trade flows during the last three decades and presents estimates of aggregate export and import equations. In particular, it considers different choices for scale and price variables and assesses the relative merits of these alternative...

We propose a model of the interbank money market with an explicit role for central bank intervention and periodic reserve requirements, and study the interaction of profit-maximizing banks with a central bank targeting interest rates at high frequency. The model yields predictions on biweekly...

We use transaction-level data and detailed modeling of the high-frequency behavior of federal funds and Eurodollar yield spreads to provide evidence of strong integration between the federal funds and Eurodollar markets, the two core components of the dollar money market. Our results contrast...

Beginning in 1985 Italy embarked on a path of progressive removal of its system of controls on portfolio investment, a process formally completed with the abolition of all remaining restrictions in 1990. In this paper we review this policy of capital liberalization and integrate the analysis...

We investigate the conditions for sustainability of debt roll-over schemes under uncertainty. In contrast with the requirements identified in recent research, we show that a necessary and sufficient condition for sustainability of such schemes is that the asymptotic interest rate on government...