This paper addresses a key puzzle in international finance: whether exchange rates follow a random walk or exhibit predictable patterns. We demonstrate that exchange rates can possess a unit root while maintaining substantial predictability over certain horizons. Our model combines a stochastic...

How much convergence has been achieved between Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and the eurozone? We explore this question by comparing long-run volatility trends in CEE currencies and the euro. We find that these trends are closely correlated, pointing to convergence in the economic...

This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the ""facts on the ground"" and ""methodological...

We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify each structural shock and to further decompose each one into "news" and...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix. Further Empirical Results.

In this paper we extend the BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) approach which identifies an estimated equilibrium relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Here the economic fundamentals are decomposed using Johansen cointegration methods into transitory and...

This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...

This paper explores the determinants of expected rates of realignment of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the period 1987-1991. It does so by first estimating expected parity changes and then relating these to economic variables that are believed to influence agents’...

The paper looks at the hypothesis that financial market liberalization can create a basis for more stable exchange rates, as deviations of exchange rates from equilibrium levels bring forth stabilizing flows of liquidity. This "endogenous liquidity" hypothesis suggests that opening financial...