This paper studies the transmission of macroprudential policies across both financial and non financial sectors of the economy. It first documents that tighter macroprudential regulations implemented in Europe over the period 2008-2017 lowered default risk not only in the financial, but also in...

We present a framework to derive the probability of default implied by the price of equity options. The framework does not require any strong statistical assumption, and provide results that are informative on the expected developments of balance sheet variables, such as assets, equity and...

Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of...

The recent financial crisis has shown how interconnected the financial world has become. Shocks in one location or asset class can have a sizable impact on the stability of institutions and markets around the world. But systemic risk analysis is severely hampered by the lack of consistent data...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. EQUITY RETURNS AND SYSTEMATIC DEFAULT RISK -- III. EXTRACTING SYSTEMATIC DEFAULT RISK MEASURES FROM CREDIT DERIVATIVES PRICES -- IV. IS SYSTEMATIC DEFAULT RISK PRICED IN EQUITY RETURNS? -- V. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of early identification of weak banks: when problems are identified late, solutions are much more costly. Until recently, Europe has seen only a small number of outright bank failures, which made the estimation of early warning models...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. MACROECONOMIC-BASED MODELS -- III. CREDIT SCORING (OR ACCOUNTING-BASED) MODELS -- IV. RATINGS-BASED MODELS -- V. HYBRID MODELS -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance...

We develop a mixed-frequency, tree-based, gradient-boosting model designed to assess the default risk of privately held firms in real time. The model uses data from publicly-traded companies to construct a probability of default (PD) function. This function integrates high-frequency,...

This study investigates carbon pricing-induced credit risk, the potential negative impact of carbon pricing on firms' ability to meet their financial obligations. Applying a well-established credit assessment model to a novel data set combining financial statements and emissions data, we subject...