We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent … with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun … coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various …

, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the …

relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes …, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of … inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation. …

This paper analyzes the sources of output and unemployment dynamics in the world economy during the Great Recession …