We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as...

This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates of the Group of Seven (G-7) countries. We then quantify the relative importance of...

The paper looks at the hypothesis that financial market liberalization can create a basis for more stable exchange rates, as deviations of exchange rates from equilibrium levels bring forth stabilizing flows of liquidity. This "endogenous liquidity" hypothesis suggests that opening financial...

This paper examines the impact of productivity shocks on real exchange rate fluctuations in a dynamic international general equilibrium model with nontraded goods. The model predicts a close association between relative technology shocks and bilateral real exchange rate movements. Empirical...

We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less...

How much convergence has been achieved between Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies and the eurozone? We explore this question by comparing long-run volatility trends in CEE currencies and the euro. We find that these trends are closely correlated, pointing to convergence in the economic...

During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 5 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated...

This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of OTC currency options on the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty correcting for the volatility risk premium and errors-in-variable problems, using state-of-the-art techniques (Chernov 2001). It finds that these markets are more efficient than...