generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit …

salaried firms, have little access to formal financing and therefore rely on informal financing (input credit) from other firms …. We build a small open economy real business cycle model with labor and financial market frictions where formal credit … markets, informal credit, and the structure of the labor market interact. The model successfully replicates the cyclical …

cycle and the credit market. A Bayesian estimation technique is used to estimate a large Vector Autoregression and New …

government investment and private sector credit, while the major determinants of external performance are real effective exchange …

market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries … credit and liabilities convey similar information and perform better as early warning indicators, but liabilities are more …

€˜buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model … is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and … uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the …