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The working age population is expected to grow faster in the Middle East than in any other region in the world between now and 2015—rising annually by 2.7 percent, or 10 million people. This demographic explosion presents the region with a major challenge in terms of providing jobs, incomes,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264176
Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876597
demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this … and future policy choices. Other implications arising from China’s demography, including the growth model, the pension …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142029
This paper explores the global impact of population aging, using a calibrated overlapping generations model of eight world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The simulations show that there will be a turning point in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605062
This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826103
Africa will account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100. The accompanying increase in its working age population creates a window of opportunity, which if properly harnessed, can translate into higher growth and yield a demographic dividend. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959480
This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599503
Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790335
This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769243
The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605176