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Growing (Un)equal: Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality in China and BRIC+
Cevik, Serhan; Correa-Caro, Carolina - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of income inequality in China and a panel of BRIC+ countries over the period 1980–2013, with a focus on the redistributive contribution of fiscal policy. Using instrumental variable techniques to deal with potential endogeneity, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242236
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Dissecting Saving Dynamics; Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects
Carroll, Christopher; Sommer, Martin; Slacalek, Jiri - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242291
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Tests of German Resilience
Bornhorst, Fabian; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142028
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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions
Dell'Erba, Salvatore; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment … unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142040
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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Anand, Rahul; Cheng, Kevin C.; Rehman, Sidra; Zhang, Longmei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142066
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Middle East Transitions: A Long, Hard Road
Yusuf, Shahid - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Countries in Transition, ACTs) has slowed already sluggish growth; worsened unemployment, particularly of youth; undermined …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142081
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Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output
Ding, Ding; Nelmes, John; Perera, Roshan; Tulin, Volodymyr - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142089
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Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts
Ball, Laurence M.; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent … with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun … coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142185
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Growth and Employment in the Dominican Republic; Options for a Job-Rich Growth
Abdullaev, Umidjon; Estevao, Marcello - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
The Dominican Republic has posted high rates of output and productivity growth, but labor market indicators have remained weak during the past 20 years. This paper documents these trends, showing that the rapid productivity growth originates in a few sectors, while the bulk of job creation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242228
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Chronicle of a Decline Foretold; Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Das, Mitali; N'Diaye, Papa M - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242230