Showing 1 - 10 of 40
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690165
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VARmodel, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 2011Q2, to discriminatebetween supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile oftheir macroeconomic effects...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690166
This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677582
This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677765
This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677819
We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142133
This paper analyzes spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790399
This paper examines the long-run relationship between consumer price index industrial workers (CPI-IW) inflation and GDP growth in India. We collect data on a sample of 14 Indian states over the period 1989–2013, and use the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CSDL) approach of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142122
This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401201
This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401198