This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...

This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...

The macroeconomic effects of population aging are explored using data for the G-7 countries and Australia. The link between changes in birth and mortality rates on the one hand, and dependency ratios on the other, is first discussed, then empirical evidence on the effects of dependency ratios on...

Could a West African monetary union (either of the non-CFA countries, or all ECOWAS members) be an effective "agency of restraint" on fiscal policies? We discuss how monetary union could affect fiscal discipline and the arguments for explicit fiscal restraints considered in the European Monetary...

Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrate that phenomenon, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations assess its relevance...

Since the early 1980s, well over 100 countries have experienced systemic bank insolvencies. An important innovation among the resulting policies for reestablishing bank soundness has been the reliance on market-based instruments and policies, in contrast to the largely non-market-oriented...

The paper presents estimates of a model of the credibility of the U.K. commitment to its central parity against the deutsche mark during the period of U.K. ERM membership (1990-92). The measure of credibility used is the long-term interest differential with Germany. Credibility is decomposed...

This paper looks at theoretical and empirical issues associated with the operation of fiscal stabilizers within an economy. It argues that such stabilizers operate most effectively at a national, rather than local, level. As differing cycles across regions tend to offset each other for the...

Inflation targeting (IT) serves as monetary policy framework in several advanced economies, where it has enhanced policy transparency and accountability. The paper considers its wider applicability to developing countries. The prerequisites for a successful IT framework are identified as an...

This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output costs of a disinflation path are calculated, first...