Belarus experienced a sequence of currency crises during 2009-2014. Our empirical results, based on a structural econometric model, suggest that the activist wage policy and extensive state program lending (SPL) conflicted with the tightly managed exchange rate regime and suppressed monetary...

This paper reviews some broad principles of fiscal coverage, building on cross-country experience. It discusses the level of coverage that would be appropriate to conduct good quality fiscal analysis, while striking the right balance between the costs and the benefits of expanding the coverage....

Assuming a social welfare function that smoothes expenditure, this paper calculates a sustainability benchmark for the non-mineral balance in Botswana that is based on a notion of a "permanent income" from non-renewable resources. It is derived by constructing a hypothetical annuity from...

The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s....

The paper develops a simple model of sovereign debt where default both through direct repudiation and through inflation are possible and give rise to (endogenous) constraints on the currency composition and the level of public debt. This set up allows to show that procyclicality of fiscal policy...

A common dilemma facing governments around the world is how to meet the sizeable fiscal costs of providing and maintaining infrastructure networks. Over the past decade, developed and developing countries have looked to fiscal rules, budgetary reforms, tax policy and administration measures,...

We show that fiscal policies reflecting a primary balance response to higher debt in line with historic experience would significantly increase the likelihood of reaching the debt targets of the U.S. administration in the medium term. Deficits and debt are higher under current budgetary...

This paper studies how fiscal policy affects loan market conditions in the US. First, it conducts a Structural Vector-Autoregression analysis showing that the bank spread responds negatively to an expansionary government spending shock, while lending increases. Second, it illustrates that these...

Focusing on Low-Income Countries, we investigate the behavior of fiscal variables during and after elections. The results indicate that during election years, government consumption significantly increases and leads to higher fiscal deficits. During the two years following elections, the fiscal...

Implementation of fiscal consolidation by advanced economies in coming years needs to take into account the short and long-run interactions between economic growth and fiscal policy. Many countries must reduce high public debt to GDP ratios that penalize longterm growth. However, fiscal...