Intro -- Contents -- Executive Summary -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. LONG- TERM SYSTEMIC RISKS -- III. INNOVATIONS IN RISK …

risk events driven by climate change, rather than just individual extreme events, to better understand financial stability …

climate risk analysis …

The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative has called for the IMF to develop standard measures of tail risk, which we identify in … this paper with systemic risk. To understand the conditions under which tail risk is present, it is first necessary to … performance of eleven near-term systemic risk indicators as ‘early’ warning of distress among top financial institutions in the …

, it shows that the Lehman Brothers failure was a watershed event in the crisis, although signs of heightened systemic risk …

Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk … in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and … and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several …

. Using data from 49 countries, the paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments in reducing systemic risk …

In this paper we identify some of the main factors behind systemic risk in a set of international large-scale complex … risk episodes. In contrast, we find no evidence that a larger size increases systemic risk within the class of large global … banks. We also show that the sensitivity of system-wide risk to an individual bank is asymmetric across episodes of positive …