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U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Middle East and Central Asia: Shocks, Fundamentals, and Propagations

Ugazio, Giovanni - 2024

decomposing U.S. interest rates changes into two orthogonal shocks: the pure monetary policy shock and the information news shock … countries, with oil exporters with stronger fundamentals withstanding well the shock and oil importers with weaker fundamentals …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058845

Monetary Policy Transmission through Commodity Prices

Miranda-Pinto, Jorge - 2023

Monetary policy influences inflation dynamics by exerting impact on a diverse array of commodity prices. At high frequencies, we show that a 10 basis points increase in US monetary policy rate reduces commodity prices between 0.5% and 2.5%, after 18 to 24 business days. Beyond the dollar...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059018

Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles.

Cashin, Paul A. - 2012

States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf …. Shock to U.S. GDP -- B. Shock to Euro Area GDP -- C. Shock to Chinese GDP -- V. Outward Spillovers -- VI. Concluding Remarks …. Trade Weights, Averages over 1986-1988 -- Figures -- 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012690165

Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts

Adams, Jonathan - 2023

shock and to further decompose each one into "news" and "surprise" shocks. We estimate a VAR on US time series using …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059043

Understanding Inflation Dynamics: The Role of Global Shocks in CEMAC

Tiedemann, Johanna - 2024

As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021-23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058603

How effective is monetary transmission in low-income countries? : a survey of the empirical evidence

Mishra, Prachi; Montiel, Peter - 2012

This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the ""facts on the ground"" and ""methodological...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618588

Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR

Choi, Woon Gyu - 2010

This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677535

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

Stavrev, Emil - 2008

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677626

The ECBâ s Monetary Analysis Revisited

Berger, Helge - 2008

Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. A Brief Guide Monetary Analysis in the ECB's Strategy and Its Evolution Since 1998 -- III. Survey of the Theoretical Debate -- IV. The Importance of Money for Inflation Forecasts -- V. Disaggregated Monetary Analysis -- VI. How Time Path Dependent Should the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012682180

Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting.

Kumah, Francis Y. - 2006

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix. Further Empirical Results.

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691121