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the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation …, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790260
Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been … remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s … observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790401
relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes …, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of … inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825999
This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of … perception of risk by markets. We also find some weak evidence that IT countries did better on unemployment rates and advanced IT …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008519500
inflation-unemployment process. The results provide some evidence in favor of the Lucas critique by showing that the short …-run unemployment-inflation trade-off tends to improve in countries that are successful in providing low and stable inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263831
This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008777014
) has been to raise inflation targets to provide more room for policy rate easing during crises. This paper addresses a … different issue: the relationship between inflation and welfare. The literature is surveyed and a model is developed. A key … conclusion is that an increase in inflation targets gives rise to additional welfare costs, even after the extra room to maneuver …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011141999
This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242297
This paper develops a theory of international currency portfolios that holds in general equilibrium, and that is therefore not subject to the criticisms directed at the portfolio balance literature of the 1980s. It shows that, under plausible assumptions about fiscal policy, the relationship...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790426
This paper uses a simple framework based on the government budget constraint to analyze the consistency of macroeconomic policies undertaken in Mexico during the period 1978 to mid-1991. It was found that the interaction between the actual implementation of economic policies and economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768753