This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...

A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavior is examined, using data for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. Both time-series and cross-section estimates are obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offset on private saving of changes in public...

This paper develops a framework for analyzing macro-financial linkages in the United States. We estimate the effects of a negative shock to banks' capital/assetratio on lending standards, which in turn affect consumer credit, mortgages, and corporate loans, and the corresponding components of...

This paper questions the view that leverage should have forewarned us of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, pointing to several gearing indicators that were neither useful portents of the onset of the crisis nor of its ferocity. Instead it shows, first, that the use of ill-suited collateral...

This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil...

This paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the world-the United States, euro area, Japan, and the rest of the world-to Canada and Mexico, and decomposing the impact of these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and...

An increasing body of evidence suggests that the behavior of the economy has changed in many fundamental ways over the last decades. In particular, greater financial deregulation, larger wealth accumulation, and better policies might have helped lower uncertainty about future income and lengthen...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY PRODUCTION -- III. EXPORT PROSPECTS AND DUTCH DISEASE -- IV. EXCHANGE RATE EQUATION -- V. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER -- VI. CONCLUSION -- APPENDIX I. Data -- References.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DATA AND METHODOLOGY -- III. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS -- IV. RESULTS ACROSS CANADIAN PROVINCES -- V. EXTENDING THE CANADIAN MODEL -- VI. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Data Appendix.