The economic literature has long attributed non-zero expected excess returns in currency markets to time-varying risk premiums demanded by risk-averse investors. This paper, building on Bacchetta and van Wincoop's (2021) portfolio balance framework, shows that such returns can also arise when...

This paper addresses a key puzzle in international finance: whether exchange rates follow a random walk or exhibit predictable patterns. We demonstrate that exchange rates can possess a unit root while maintaining substantial predictability over certain horizons. Our model combines a stochastic...

Since 1980, income levels in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have shown no convergence with those in the US, in stark contrast to emerging Asia and emerging Europe, which have seen rapid convergence. A key factor contributing to this divergence has been sluggish productivity growth in LAC....