I examine the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on labor market outcomes for skilled and unskilled workers and propose a new channel to improve our understanding of the underlying propagation mechanisms. I find that uncertainty shocks are recessionary with the unskilled experiencing a steeper...

The paper explores the drivers of political fragility by focusing on coups d'état as symptomatic of such fragility. It uses event studies to identify factors that exhibit significantly different dynamics in the runup to coups, and machine learning to identify these stressors and more structural...

This paper analyzes the interlinkages between climate shocks, domestic conflicts, and policy resilience in Africa. It builds on a Correlated Random Effect model to asess these interrelationships on a broad sample of 51 African countries over the 1990-2018 period. We find suggestive evidence that...

Labor productivity levels in Bulgaria lag well behind that in the EU, weighing on the convergence process. Stronger productivity growth would allow Bulgaria to close the income gap with the EU average more quickly and to alleviate the structural problems in its labor market, reflected in its...

The Middle East and Central Asia’s economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region’s generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this...

Amid renewed crisis, falling tax revenues, and rising debt, Ukraine faces serious fiscal consolidation needs. Durable fiscal adjustment can support economic confidence and rebuild buffers but what is its overall impact on growth? How effective are revenue versus spending instruments? Does...

Ukraine’s gas pricing policy subsidizes gas and heating for all households. As the cost of imported gas rises, this policy increasingly weighs on government finances, sustains energy over-consumption, dampens investment in delivery systems, and undermines incentives for domestic...

This paper studies the factors behind pro-cyclical but widely varying construction shares (as a percent of GDP) across countries, with a strong focus on European countries. Using a dataset covering 48 countries (including advanced and emerging economies within and outside Europe) for 1990-2011,...

Emerging market financial crises during the late 1990s were marked by sudden withdrawals of funds by foreign creditors, resulting in production declines. The IMF favored positive signals to potential foreign creditors and initially recommended disciplined fiscal policy during the height of...

The recent boom-bust episode in Emerging Europe was largely the product of surges and sudden stops in capital inflows. This paper empirically argues that the sectors into which capital flows determines their impact on GDP growth. Applying data from EU New Member States, it is found that capital...