Credit Default Swap spreads have been used as a leading indicator of distress. Default probabilities can be extracted from CDS spreads, but during distress it is important to take account of the stochastic nature of recovery value. The recent episodes of Landbanski, WAMU and Lehman illustrate...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. EQUITY RETURNS AND SYSTEMATIC DEFAULT RISK -- III. EXTRACTING SYSTEMATIC DEFAULT RISK MEASURES FROM CREDIT DERIVATIVES PRICES -- IV. IS SYSTEMATIC DEFAULT RISK PRICED IN EQUITY RETURNS? -- V. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. DESCRIPTION OF THE INDICATOR -- III. MODEL DESCRIPTION -- IV. DATA DESCRIPTION -- V. FACTOR ANALYSIS: ESTIMATION RESULTS -- VI. COMPUTATION OF THE PROBABILITIES OF DEFAULT -- VII. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -- VIII. STRESS TESTING -- IX. CONCLUDING REMARKS...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. CDS VALUATION AND THE BASIS -- III. THE ROLE OF RECOVERY -- IV. DATA ANALYSIS -- V. IMPLIED RECOVERY VALUES UNDER NO ARBITRAGE -- VI. IMPLIED RECOVERY VALUES UNDER NO ARBITRAGE WITH CTD -- VII. CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES.

The paper shows how-in a Merton-type model with bankruptcy-the currency composition of debt changes the risk profile of a company raising a given amount of financing, and thus affects the cost of debt. Foreign currency borrowing is cheaper when the exchange rate is positively correlated with the...