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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009424693
Monetary aggregates continue to play an important role in the ECB''s policy strategy. This paper revisits the case for money, surveying the ongoing theoretical and empirical debate. The key conclusion is that an exclusive focus on non-monetary factors alone may leave the ECB with an incomplete...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401331
This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401386
We use Bayesian estimation techniques to investigate whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the United States. We test for Granger-causality out-of-sample and find, perhaps surprisingly given recent theoretical arguments, that including money growth in simple VAR models of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401395
We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401871
Global excess liquidity is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies, including the euro area. There is much discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and our approach adjusts liquidity for longer-term interest rate and output effects. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404266
central bank that does not observe the natural interest rate can take advantage of this co-movement by incorporating the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396924
process of the European Central Bank (ECB) and be seen by some as resulting in the overrepresentation of small member …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399555
, welfare will be lower with a conservative than with a liberal central bank. We reframe this discussion in a standard trade … the central bank less conservative than society, however, if the outside option is in real terms. As the nominal … always optimal if the government can choose the level of nominal unemployment benefits as well as the degree of central bank …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399704
anticipate monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB)? Using a database of surveys of professional ECB policy forecasters …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399987