Using a simple model, this paper shows how a strict monetary rule exhibits characteristics similar to those of an exchange rate anchor, in terms of a lack of robustness in the presence of adverse expectations (“bad dreams”). More specifically, as an anticipated devaluation under an exchange...

This paper provides a new argument for “shock” versus “gradualism” in the implementation of trade policies. In the simple context of a small open economy with rational expectations, we consider the comparative welfare effects of eliminating an import tariff either immediately as an...

A comprehensive empirical investigation is carried out to ascertain the import-reducing effect of trade protection barriers. We first present a statistical summary of the status of global trade protection. Then, based on a monopolistic competition trade model and 1994 cross-country data on trade...

Through the use of a multivariate cointegration and error-correction model, this study investigates the short- and long-run relationship over the past two decades between fiscal expenditure policy and non?oil real GDP growth in member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Despite the...

The paper examines the direction of causality between total government expenditure and revenue in oil-dependent GCC countries by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework, and by calculating a variance decomposition analysis. In addition, it presents impulse responses to...

This paper addresses concerns that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with the exception of the GCC economies, has lagged behind in trade liberalization. This delay has adversely affected production efficiency and consumer welfare and could reduce the region’s ability to attract...

This paper asks whether the BoJ''s recent experience with unconventional monetary easing has been effective in supporting economic activity and inflation. Using a structural VAR model, the paper finds some evidence that BoJ''s monetary policy measures during 1998-2010 have had an impact on...

Globalization—the intensification of international trade and finance linkages underpinned by economic liberalization and technological change—presents both challenges and opportunities to Arab countries. After reviewing this region’s disappointing performance in integration and growth,...